A report prepared by Dr Peter Lloyd-Sherlock and Dr Arjan Verschoor from the University of East Anglia estimates the potential impact of COVID-19 on human mortality (PICHM) in Algeria. This report is part of a bigger project that aims to study the impact of COVID-19 on older people in low and middle-income countries. Similar reports on other countries have been uploaded on the project website.
According to the findings of the report, if Algeria suceeds in restricting the infection to 10% of the population with a case fatality rate comparable to that seen in Italy, it would save over 163,000 lives compared to 50% infection rate and a higher case fatality, as seen in China. This depends on taking immediate, robust action at all levels now.
PICHM applies observed case fatality rates from China and Italy (soon to include those for other countries) to national and sub-national demographic data by age composition, according to different scenarios of overall infection rate, to estimates the potential (or expected) number of death by age due to COVID-19.
The report uses core data on COVID-19 confirmed cases, deaths, and case fatality rates by age from publications on China, Italy, and South Korea. The estimates of the expected number of deaths in each geographical unit are based on the assumption that case fatality rates by age observed in China, Italy or South Korea (selected by the user) will apply elsewhere.
The researchers estimate the number of expected deaths by age using population estimates at the national level from the World Population Prospects, 2019 Revision, and subnational level from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 population database, and others publicly available national sources.
The full report can be accessed here.