Kenya could save 100k lives if it restricts COVID-19 to 10% of the population at Italian CFR

Updated: Apr 2

A recent report prepared by a team from the University of East Anglia as part of the corona-older.com project estimates the human mortality due to COVID-19 in Kenya.

The report based on Case-Fatality Rates (CFRs) from Italy and China predict the impact of the deadly virus on Kenyan population and finds out that Kenyan government succeeds in restricting the spread of COVID-19 to 10% of the population at the Italian CFR, then it could save 100,000 people compared to 50% infection rate and a higher CFR as seen in China.

The estimates of the report are just predictions intended to assist policymakers in the lower and middle-income countries. It is also important to point out that it is unknown how far will the CFRs in Italy and China apply to other countries.

The following table gives an estimate of the potential impact of COVID-19 on human mortality in Kenya:


The report can be accessed here.

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