by Nattan Geffen
How many people could Covid-19 kill in South Africa? Researchers at the University of East Anglia in England have used data from the Chinese and Italian epidemics to make an online tool that estimates the potential number of deaths in other countries, including South Africa.
Led by Professor Peter Lloyd-Sherlock the team, known as the Potential Impact of COVID-19 on Human Mortality (PIHCM) Expert Consortium, warns that the tool’s results should be treated with caution. They have made assumptions based on the very imperfect knowledge we have of the coronavirus pandemic. Scientists are still unsure of how fast the virus spreads and what percentage of infected people it kills.
The interesting thing about this tool though is that it takes into account the ages of a country’s population.