Country Report: How many could die due to COVID-19 in India?

Updated: Apr 19

A report prepared by a team of experts from the University of East Anglia has built a model that sets out potential scenarios based on hypothetical levels of COVID19 infection and on hypothetical rates of mortality for those who become infected.

Note: The contents of this report are not predictions. They are meant to inform policymakers. Whether India sees higher or lower rates of infection and mortality largely depends on actions that can be taken by the government, other organisations and the general public to contribute towards combating the deadly virus.

According to the report, if India were able to restrict infection to 10% with a case fatality rate comparable to that seen in Italy, it would save over 5 million lives compared to 50% infection rate and a higher case fatality, as seen in China. This depends on taking immediate, robust action at all levels now.

The report charts out estimates based on Italian and Chinese Case Fatality Rates (CFR). It should be pointed out that the Italy data reported zero case fatality for people aged 0-29, whereas the China data do. By contrast, case fatality at very old ages is higher in Italy than in China.

The report will further narrow-down the estimates on the sub-national level and will continue to be updated on this website.

The following table gives an overview of the estimated human mortality due to COVID-19 in India. The detailed report can be found here.

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Supported by the University of East Anglia and the contributions of our network of experts

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