Country Report: Potential Impact of COVID-19 on Human Mortality in India at the Sub-National Level

A report produced by Dr Peter Lloyd-Sherlock and Dr Arjan Verschoor has recorded the potential impact of COVID-19 on human mortality in India at the sub-national level.


This report contains data for 99% of the Indian population. The data for Goa and some "Union Territories" (Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Chandigarh, Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Daman & Diu, Lakshadweep, Ladakh and Puducherry) was not available.


The aim of the report is to inform policymakers in India. The content of the report are predictions and whether India sees higher or lower rates of infection and mortality largely depends on actions that can be taken by the government, other organisations and the general public to contribute towards combating the deadly virus.


According to the report, if the provincial governments were able to restrict infection to 10% with a case fatality rate comparable to that seen in Italy, they would save over 4.8 million lives compared to 50% infection rate and a higher case fatality, as seen in China.


The report can be accessed here.


Dr Sherlock and Dr Verschoor had produced a similar report at the national level and can be accessed here.

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